Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:58:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1617…d790 sports 142 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (490 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,693 (+11%) realized +$1,726 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate57%52W / 39L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day490.0pace
Fees−$100est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$2,864now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$261
sports 47% +$1,319
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (490 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -6.9% -15.8% 57% 37% +2.1%
≤30d 91 -6.9% -15.8% 57% 37% +2.1%
≤90d 91 -6.9% -15.8% 57% 37% +2.1%
all 91 -6.9% -15.8% 57% 37% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover490.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 37% +2.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 32% -7.6%
15% -31.2% 26% -16.6%
20% -38.0% 20% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$72 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2,864
Realized+$1,726
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses52 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$100
Open positions51
Markets (closed)91 / 142
History coverage1d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day490.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 51 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Over 92¢ 92¢ $409 $407 −$2 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $367 $371 +$4 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $346 $329 −$17 (-5%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Los Angeles Dodgers 89¢ 94¢ $281 $297 +$17 (+6%)
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Japan 97¢ 96¢ $159 $158 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30? No 75¢ 74¢ $130 $129 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? No 43¢ 42¢ $102 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Japan 71¢ 70¢ $90 $90 −$1 (-1%)
Brazil leading at halftime? No 58¢ 57¢ $68 $68 −$1 (-1%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros Minnesota Twins 45¢ 44¢ $66 $66 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Japan 89¢ 88¢ $64 $64 −$0 (-1%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 56¢ 56¢ $56 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Argentina 99¢ 99¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? No 99¢ 98¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 42¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 81¢ 83¢ $41 $42 +$1 (+3%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Under 27¢ 28¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+5%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Over 43¢ 15¢ $106 $37 −$69 (-65%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? No 82¢ 82¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $34 $30 −$3 (-10%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Under 96¢ 96¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Under 71¢ 88¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+24%)
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Japan 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Algeria 77¢ 76¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 28 $204 −$104 -51%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $76 −$76 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $665 +$65 +10%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 28 $70 +$56 +81%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $6 −$1 -15%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 28 $35 +$5 +14%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $8 −$7 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $6 −$6 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $161 +$110 +68%
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 28 $4 −$2 -49%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 3 Canada? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 28 $119 +$47 +39%
South Africa vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 28 $104 −$96 -92%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $82 −$29 -35%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 Jun 28 $3 +$2 +46%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 Jun 28 $2 +$2 +114%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) Jun 28 $5 +$1 +11%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 28 $6 +$2 +31%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 28 $17 +$13 +75%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 28 $27 +$78 +286%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 28 $7 +$7 +100%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 28 $12 +$8 +64%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 28 $19 −$12 -63%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 28 $30 +$20 +67%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 28 $98 +$22 +22%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5) Jun 28 $5 +$3 +63%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 28 $60 −$40 -66%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $20 +$2 +10%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $46 −$2 -4%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 3 Canada? Jun 28 $2 $0 +1%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $2 $0 +4%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $2 $0 +10%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $87 +$16 +19%
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) Jun 28 $6 $0 +1%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $5 $0 +5%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $179 −$108 -60%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $7 −$4 -54%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 28 $16 −$11 -64%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 47¢ $2 0m
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 47¢ $2 0m
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 47¢ $2 0m
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY No 58¢ $5 2m
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY No 58¢ $5 2m
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY No 58¢ $5 2m
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY No 58¢ $5 2m
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 83¢ $8 3m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 15¢ $5 3m
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 19¢ $4 3m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 95¢ $57 3m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 3m
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 3m
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 86¢ $8 3m
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 18¢ $4 3m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 95¢ $57 4m
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 86¢ $8 4m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 18¢ $1 4m
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 18¢ $4 4m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 87¢ $13 4m
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 86¢ $8 4m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 17¢ $9 4m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 95¢ $57 4m
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 18¢ $4 4m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 95¢ $57 4m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 21¢ $11 4m
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 39¢ $14 6m
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 45¢ $2 7m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $4 7m
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY No 58¢ $3 7m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,864.33 · official $2,880.59 (match) · 621 history records