Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:51:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1614…ec02 crypto 315 markets active 5d ago coverage 369d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$142 (+3%) realized +$141 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate42%131W / 181L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$147
14 days−$151
30 days−$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$217
sports 26% +$320
other 14% −$194
world 10% −$57
politics 6% +$74
culture 1% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 153 -13.6% -21.8% 36% 32% -16.7%
≤30d 164 -14.8% -23.0% 36% 32% -16.7%
≤90d 164 -14.8% -23.0% 36% 32% -16.7%
all 312 -6.9% -15.7% 42% 32% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 32% -10.5%
10% -23.8% 28% -19.1%
15% -31.2% 24% -26.9%
20% -37.9% 20% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

369d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$141
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses131 / 181
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)312 / 315
History coverage369d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 312 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$10 -82%
Will Spain be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $8 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$4 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $18 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $18 −$12 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $13 +$9 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$20 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$3 +75%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$5 -50%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $36 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $41 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$19 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $67 +$24 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$5 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$17 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$11 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$8 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $26 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $22 +$11 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$8 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 4d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 6d
Will Spain be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.32 · official $22.32 (match) · 1139 history records