Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:54:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
16 0x1611…6013 other 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 429d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate41%20W / 29L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$8
other 27% −$6
politics 16% +$1
crypto 9% +$1
tech 4% $0
culture 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +16.7% +5.6% 100% 100% +5.6%
≤30d 14 +2.4% -7.3% 50% 14% -8.0%
≤90d 14 +2.4% -7.3% 50% 14% -8.0%
all 49 +0.5% -9.1% 41% 6% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 6% -9.0%
10% -17.8% 2% -17.7%
15% -25.8% 2% -25.6%
20% -33.0% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

429d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses20 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage429d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $26 +$4 +17%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $3 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $21 +$4 +19%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $60 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $66 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 30 $31 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $33 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $30 $0 -1%
Will Eva Copa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Dec 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 26 $8 $0 -2%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $36 $0 -1%
Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score May 27 $1 +$3 +233%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? May 25 $1 $0 -5%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2025 French Open? May 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 23 $9 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23? May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 21 $2 $0 -2%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 21 $4 $0 -1%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? May 20 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the Left Bloc win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislati May 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 19 $42 −$1 -1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 18 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote? May 16 $4 $0 -10%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 16 $4 $0 +2%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 14 $4 $0 -4%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 08 $39 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 08 $41 $0 +0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend May 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 06 $17 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? May 06 $16 $0 +1%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 25 $1 $0 -30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $83000 and $85000 on Apr 25? Apr 23 $17 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Apr 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 21 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 56¢ $8 20m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 56¢ $22 20m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $26 1h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $37 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $37 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $9 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $8 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $5 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 20d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $30 20d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $31 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $31 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $31 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $30 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $6 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $6 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $31 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $31 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $7 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $23 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $4 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $26 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 172 history records