Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:02:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1610…503c sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$12 (-44%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate33%7W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$9
other 25% −$3
crypto 11% −$1
world 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-50.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -18.6% -26.4% 50% 36% -22.1%
≤30d 14 -18.6% -26.4% 50% 36% -22.1%
≤90d 20 -43.0% -48.5% 35% 25% -51.1%
all 21 -45.8% -50.9% 33% 24% -53.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.9% 24% -53.0%
10% -55.6% 19% -57.5%
15% -59.9% 19% -61.6%
20% -63.8% 10% -65.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -99% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses7 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage90d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 34¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +91%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +37%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +47%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2 +$3 +216%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -87%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -91%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 20 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 3 Winner Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs LOUD - Game 3 Winner Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales - Game 3 Winner Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $2 15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 51¢ $1 17h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $1 18h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 71¢ $1 19h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 19h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 22h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 22h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 41h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 42h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 100¢ $5 2d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 31¢ $2 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 4d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports $1 86d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 28¢ $1 86d
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 30¢ $1 88d
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY JD Gaming 67¢ $3 88d
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 3 Winner BUY BNK FEARX 17¢ $1 88d
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 3 Winner BUY BNK FEARX 62¢ $1 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.01 · official $1.01 (match) · 33 history records