Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:16:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x1610…ae49
sports · 34 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$209,891 +21%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$209,720 · open −$3,956
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Chart Positions 10 History 24 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$111,731
7 days+$133,102
14 days+$213,564
30 days+$209,720
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 57¢ 56¢ $43,877 $42,829 −$1,049 (-2%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 22¢ 19¢ $32,301 $28,386 −$3,915 (-12%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 66¢ 80¢ $17,767 $21,670 +$3,903 (+22%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 69¢ 68¢ $21,220 $21,066 −$154 (-1%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 22¢ 19¢ $19,134 $16,755 −$2,379 (-12%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 68¢ 68¢ $16,433 $16,312 −$121 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 54¢ 52¢ $11,507 $11,188 −$320 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 13¢ 14¢ $5,179 $5,378 +$199 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 10¢ 10¢ $4,126 $3,990 −$137 (-3%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $1,233 $1,248 +$15 (+1%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 17¢ $3,831 $0 −$3,831 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Thunder 30¢ $95,115 $0 −$95,115 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B TheMongolz 55¢ $830 $0 −$830 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $41,369 +$22,785 +55%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $43,618 +$6,941 +16%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2,134 +$2,511 +118%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $57,523 −$6,582 -11%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $6,568 +$1,411 +22%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $57,178 +$48,887 +86%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $32,584 +$29,674 +91%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $6,062 +$6,106 +101%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $84,839 +$1,713 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $47,744 +$19,658 +41%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $65,397 +$26,534 +41%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 03 $44,066 +$12,003 +27%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $8,088 +$13,928 +172%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3,912 −$3,831 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $44,986 +$31,828 +71%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $128,616 −$103,617 -81%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $14,182 −$5,418 -38%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $12,651 +$26,824 +212%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 20 $841 −$830 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $23,973 +$26,777 +112%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $8,694 −$8,694 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $30,441 +$49,531 +163%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $9,812 +$1,188 +12%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 17 $27,549 +$10,395 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 93% +$185,258
other 7% +$20,506
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z $9 1m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z $651 2m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $3 2m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $0 7m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $3 9m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $1 9m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $26 9m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $3 10m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $3 14m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $0 17m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $4 19m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $15 19m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $22 23m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $0 23m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $3 26m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $0 29m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $4 30m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $6 32m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $0 32m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $2 39m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $1 40m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $4 40m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $57 43m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $7 44m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $7 44m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $0 44m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $1 45m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $1 53m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $30 54m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 13¢ $0 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +51.9% +37.4% 90% 80% +22.2%
≤30d 24 +38.7% +25.5% 75% 71% +16.1%
≤90d 24 +38.7% +25.5% 75% 71% +16.1%
all 24 +38.7% +25.5% 75% 71% +16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover77.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +25.5% 71% +16.1%
10% +13.5% 58% +5.0%
15% ← realistic here +2.5% 54% -5.1%
20% -7.6% 42% -14.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168,821.14 · official $166,323.32 · 2093 history records