Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:10:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x160f…64cc world 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized +$33 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate61%39W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day27.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$20
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 31% +$7
sports 22% +$11
world 20% +$18
politics 14% −$41
other 13% −$11
economics 1% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -1.8% -11.1% 47% 20% +2.3%
≤30d 64 +10.0% -0.4% 61% 28% -6.0%
≤90d 64 +10.0% -0.4% 61% 28% -6.0%
all 64 +10.0% -0.4% 61% 28% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.4% 28% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here -10.0% 25% -15.0%
15% -18.7% 25% -23.2%
20% -26.6% 19% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized+$33
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses39 / 25
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions35
Markets (closed)64 / 99
History coverage15d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day27.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 87¢ 99¢ $28 $31 +$4 (+14%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 95¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 97¢ 99¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 82¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 92¢ 94¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+1%)
New pandemic in 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+13%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? No 83¢ 84¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 40¢ 40¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 80¢ 88¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
2026 Balance of Power: Other No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House No 98¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 57¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 -25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $18 +$2 +12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $19 +$2 +13%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $3 $0 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $17 −$3 -17%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $4 $0 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $14 +$40 +284%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will XRP reach $1.40 in June? Jun 11 $9 −$1 -9%
Will Solana reach $90 in June? Jun 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $1 $0 +5%
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 6? Jun 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $5 +$5 +106%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 5? Jun 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 5? Jun 06 $6 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $4 $0 +1%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5) Jun 06 $2 +$9 +510%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $7 $0 +1%
Will Malta win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $5 $0 -2%
Benin vs. Niger: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $2 +$1 +46%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $7 +$5 +65%
Moldova vs. Bulgaria: O/U 0.5 Jun 05 $5 $0 +10%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $6 +$5 +79%
Moldova vs. Bulgaria: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $13 +$5 +42%
Will Benin vs. Niger end in a draw? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2 +$3 +134%
Slovakia vs. Montenegro: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 $0 +7%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $24 −$7 -28%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $5 $0 +7%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 5? Jun 05 $3 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $5 +$3 +57%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $28 −$6 -23%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Birmingham: Yunchaokete Bu vs Mark Lajal Jun 05 $2 +$2 +109%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $44 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $17 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $0 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $0 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $0 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $0 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 57¢ $1 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $0 11h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 12h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 12h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House BUY Yes 36¢ $1 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 13h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House BUY No 98¢ $2 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $0 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $0 19h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 100¢ $2 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $0 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $0 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $0 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $0 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $7 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $2 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $0 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.95 · official $189.51 (match) · 483 history records