Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:15:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x160d…6f25
crypto · 563 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$10,619 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$10,846 · open +$1,466
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$19,659
Realized+$10,846
Unrealized+$1,466
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses88 / 408
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$637
Open positions73
Markets (closed)496 / 563
Avg bet$317
Trades / day174.0
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 73 History 496 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16,017
7 days−$1,382
14 days+$10,226
30 days+$10,846
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 68¢ 97¢ $2,392 $3,404 +$1,012 (+42%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Yes 79¢ 90¢ $1,429 $1,619 +$190 (+13%)
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 98¢ 98¢ $991 $983 −$8 (-1%)
Germany leading at halftime? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $929 $926 −$3 (-0%)
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 100¢ 99¢ $906 $904 −$2 (-0%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? No 64¢ 90¢ $618 $871 +$253 (+41%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? No 60¢ 70¢ $732 $859 +$127 (+17%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 69¢ $627 $650 +$23 (+4%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $648 $643 −$5 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $603 $580 −$23 (-4%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? No 84¢ 91¢ $526 $568 +$42 (+8%)
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Tunisia 75¢ 74¢ $552 $549 −$4 (-1%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 78¢ 89¢ $480 $545 +$65 (+14%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? No 84¢ 84¢ $447 $447 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in June? Yes 38¢ 53¢ $300 $419 +$118 (+39%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? No 89¢ 88¢ $393 $391 −$2 (-1%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $400 $365 −$34 (-9%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 98¢ 98¢ $328 $327 −$1 (-0%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 8¢ 4¢ $665 $326 −$340 (-51%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $319 $321 +$2 (+1%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No 74¢ 86¢ $269 $316 +$47 (+18%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Germany 47¢ 48¢ $252 $260 +$8 (+3%)
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in June? Yes 52¢ 64¢ $208 $258 +$50 (+24%)
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Japan 90¢ 90¢ $242 $241 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Tunisia 90¢ 90¢ $242 $241 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $211 −$211 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $98 +$553 +567%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 3 Czechia? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $91 −$70 -77%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $215 −$215 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 12 $519 −$519 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 3 Czechia? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 12 $132 −$132 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1,085 +$1,217 +112%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $264 +$35 +13%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 South Africa? Jun 11 $977 +$5 +0%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $226 −$29 -13%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 South Africa? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 South Africa? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 South Africa? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $197 −$48 -25%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $377 −$377 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $67 −$67 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $147 −$147 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 11 $558 −$220 -39%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $160 +$32 +20%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $181 +$896 +495%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $1,839 +$1,891 +103%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $247 +$48 +19%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $109 +$9 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1,053 +$96 +9%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 11 $481 +$7 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $322 −$322 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 11 $44 −$44 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $764 +$934 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 39% −$8,264
politics 30% +$1,039
other 19% +$9,343
crypto 8% −$778
tech 3% +$1,787
finance 1% +$9,590
world 1% −$405
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $107 0m
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 0m
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 1m
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $30 2m
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 100¢ $906 5m
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 98¢ $991 5m
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 10¢ $19 7m
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $39 7m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 3¢ $4 8m
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 12m
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 90¢ $243 19m
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $74 21m
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $32 21m
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 22m
Will Thibaut Courtois win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $54 29m
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $67 47m
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 98¢ $328 47m
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $24 56m
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $44 1h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 17¢ $50 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $94 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $36 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY No 84¢ $141 1h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $62 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $23 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $23 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $46 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $22 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $37 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $29 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-46.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 279 -60.6% -64.3% 18% 14% -11.1%
≤30d 496 -41.3% -46.9% 18% 14% -11.2%
≤90d 496 -41.3% -46.9% 18% 14% -11.2%
all 496 -41.3% -46.9% 18% 14% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover174.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -46.9% 14% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -52.0% 10% -19.7%
15% -56.6% 8% -27.4%
20% -60.9% 7% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,658.65 · official $19,690.77 (match) · 3500 history records