Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:54:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x160d…d77b crypto 67 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,005 (+12%) realized +$1,003 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%16W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 80d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$1,197
other 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -47.1% -52.1% 5% 5% -71.6%
≤30d 59 -19.8% -27.5% 25% 25% -32.9%
≤90d 66 -25.7% -32.8% 24% 24% -33.9%
all 66 -25.7% -32.8% 24% 24% -33.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.8% 24% -33.9%
10% -39.2% 24% -40.3%
15% -45.1% 23% -46.0%
20% -50.5% 21% -51.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$70 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$1,003
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses16 / 50
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage80d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Yes 15¢ 22¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $584 −$552 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $1,401 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $369 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $112 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $529 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $255 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 22 $23 −$22 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $108 −$102 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 22 $107 −$41 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $106 −$20 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 22 $195 −$184 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $85 +$404 +477%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $42 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $73 −$69 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $178 −$168 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $42 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $85 −$34 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $147 −$147 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $200 −$188 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $153 −$146 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $272 −$260 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $254 +$170 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $29 −$28 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $159 −$152 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $42 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $76 −$72 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $42 +$11 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $86 −$63 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 09 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $84 +$71 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $335 +$646 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 09 $172 −$164 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $84 +$120 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $88 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 09 $172 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 09 $211 −$42 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $51 −$48 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 09 $88 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $105 +$272 +258%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $7 +$18 +244%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $344 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $239 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $586 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $859 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $542 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $53 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $212 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $28 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $106 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $127 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $76 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $123 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $168 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $146 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $156 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $372 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $66 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $85 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $85 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $85 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $21 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $21 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $85 41m
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 13¢ $169 43m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.37 · official $7.37 (match) · 236 history records