Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:42:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x160b…4296 sports 508 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (194 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$63,381 (-13%) realized −$63,682 · open +$301
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%265W / 518L
Whale WR34%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$948per market
Trades / day194.1pace
Fees−$5,803est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$21,999now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$79,253
other 11% −$678
crypto 0% −$737
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (194 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-38.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 668 -43.9% -49.2% 27% 25% -66.2%
≤30d 783 -31.6% -38.1% 34% 32% -45.5%
≤90d 783 -31.6% -38.1% 34% 32% -45.5%
all 783 -31.6% -38.1% 34% 32% -45.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover194.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.1% 32% -45.5%
10% -44.1% 28% -50.7%
15% ← realistic here -49.5% 21% -55.5%
20% -54.4% 16% -59.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 34% (≥$969) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +19% → late -82% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$629 vs −$892 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$21,999
Realized−$63,682
Unrealized+$301
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses265 / 518
Whale WR (big bets)34%
Est. fees paid−$5,803
Open positions39
Markets (closed)783 / 508
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$948
Trades / day194.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 783 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Cabo Verde 66¢ 66¢ $1,987 $1,997 +$10 (+0%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Egypt 64¢ 64¢ $1,999 $1,984 −$16 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Botic van de Zandschulp 64¢ 66¢ $1,927 $1,968 +$41 (+2%)
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate Tristan Schoolkate 51¢ 50¢ $1,858 $1,826 −$32 (-2%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Under 81¢ 80¢ $1,481 $1,472 −$9 (-1%)
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Marie Bouzkova 60¢ 88¢ $806 $1,188 +$382 (+47%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 25¢ 26¢ $818 $820 +$2 (+0%)
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 64¢ 65¢ $759 $770 +$11 (+1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Under 49¢ 48¢ $730 $723 −$7 (-1%)
Belgium leading at halftime? No 55¢ 56¢ $700 $707 +$6 (+1%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Cabo Verde 27¢ 22¢ $874 $696 −$178 (-20%)
Spain leading at halftime? No 25¢ 26¢ $658 $671 +$13 (+2%)
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Martin Landaluce 65¢ 62¢ $627 $606 −$22 (-3%)
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Clement Chidekh 38¢ 38¢ $550 $544 −$6 (-1%)
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Frances Tiafoe 55¢ 56¢ $499 $513 +$14 (+3%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 68¢ 68¢ $499 $495 −$4 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 39¢ 38¢ $500 $494 −$6 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Denis Shapovalov 58¢ 57¢ $500 $491 −$9 (-2%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Zarazua Maria Timofeeva 58¢ 52¢ $500 $444 −$56 (-11%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 66¢ 66¢ $375 $372 −$3 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? No 97¢ 97¢ $361 $361 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? No 8¢ 8¢ $317 $337 +$20 (+6%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Cabo Verde 49¢ 44¢ $375 $333 −$42 (-11%)
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Oliver Tarvet 39¢ 64¢ $192 $312 +$120 (+63%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score No 51¢ 52¢ $250 $252 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 461 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Internationaux de Strasbourg (Doubles): Kichenok/Krawczyk vs Mihalikov Jun 15 $0 $0 +40%
Will Sparta Rotterdam win on 2026-04-11? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will CD Riestra vs. CD Palestino end in a draw? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
BMW Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Alex Molcan Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Will HNK Rijeka win on 2026-05-23? Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
CD Riestra vs. CD Palestino: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $576 −$576 -100%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-03-11? Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Telstar 1963 win on 2026-05-17? Jun 15 $3,236 −$3,236 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $347 −$347 -100%
RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. FC Andorra: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 15 $9,902 −$9,535 -96%
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Wrexham AFC vs. Hull City AFC: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $412 −$411 -100%
Barnet FC vs. Cambridge United FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2,306 −$2,306 -100%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-02? Jun 15 $4,478 −$4,478 -100%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Elche CF: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $114 −$139 -122%
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 15 $2,617 −$2,617 -100%
Barcelona Open: Arthur Fils vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 15 $347 −$161 -46%
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-04-22? Jun 15 $3,298 −$3,298 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-24? Jun 15 $375 −$375 -100%
ASC Oțelul Galați vs. FC Metaloglobus București: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $135 +$159 +118%
Forca Lleida CE vs. Basquet Club Andorra Jun 15 $969 −$969 -100%
Peterborough United FC vs. Doncaster Rovers FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $24,953 −$24,941 -100%
Adelaide 36ers vs. Sydney Kings Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Carabobo FC vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $73 −$73 -100%
Kilmarnock FC vs. Dundee FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Zagreb: Stefan Dostanic vs Chris Rodesch Jun 15 $4 −$1 -30%
Will Modern SC vs. Tala'ea El Gaish SC end in a draw? Jun 15 $622 −$622 -100%
Bucharest Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Titouan Droguet Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Madrid Open: Elise Mertens vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Real Salt Lake vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5,709 −$5,709 -100%
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Llaneros FC vs. Once Caldas: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $9,658 −$9,658 -100%
Will FCSB win on 2026-05-29? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Antonia Ruzic vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
O'Higgins FC vs. CA Boston River: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Wadi Degla SC win on 2026-05-18? Jun 15 $136 −$136 -100%
Spread: Middlesbrough FC (-1.5) Jun 15 $731 −$731 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Getafe CF: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $360 −$360 -100%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ugo Humbert vs Dino Prizmic Jun 15 $73 −$73 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul Jun 15 $859 −$859 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-03-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-04-25? Jun 15 $590 −$590 -100%
Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $252 3m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 80¢ $20 4m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 80¢ $200 5m
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli BUY Kilian Feldbausch 73¢ $125 9m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 80¢ $160 10m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 80¢ $81 11m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 25¢ $383 14m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 25¢ $66 17m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 25¢ $2 17m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 25¢ $0 17m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 25¢ $0 17m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $509 18m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $5 20m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $126 20m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $126 20m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $126 20m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $126 21m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $126 21m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $126 21m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $126 21m
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Zachary Svajda 29¢ $255 25m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $126 25m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $124 26m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $126 26m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $126 26m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $126 26m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $126 26m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $126 33m
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Tristan Schoolkate 51¢ $84 35m
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Tristan Schoolkate 51¢ $117 36m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,998.59 · official $21,997.63 (match) · 3500 history records