Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:37:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x160a…eba9
crypto · 6 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$2 +17%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 2 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? No 94¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 50% $0
crypto 50% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 47m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 81¢ $2 52m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +26.0% +14.0% 50% 50% +16.2%
≤30d 4 +26.0% +14.0% 50% 50% +16.2%
≤90d 4 +26.0% +14.0% 50% 50% +16.2%
all 4 +26.0% +14.0% 50% 50% +16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.0% 50% +16.2%
10% +3.1% 50% +5.1%
15% -6.8% 50% -5.1%
20% -16.0% 50% -14.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.95 · official $3.95 (match) · 10 history records