Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:24:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
16 0x1608…27d4 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-4%) realized −$39 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$38
other 44% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -7.7% -16.5% 43% 43% -14.4%
≤30d 7 -7.7% -16.5% 43% 43% -14.4%
≤90d 7 -7.7% -16.5% 43% 43% -14.4%
all 7 -7.7% -16.5% 43% 43% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 43% -14.4%
10% -24.5% 43% -22.6%
15% -31.8% 43% -30.1%
20% -38.5% 43% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$147 vs −$124 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$39
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage5d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $202 +$126 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $193 +$259 +134%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $122 −$120 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $299 −$177 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $193 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $122 5d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 17¢ $122 5d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $177 5d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $122 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.35 · official $27.35 (match) · 13 history records