Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:45:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1606…9a7c sports 62 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$18 (+1%) realized +$44 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%19W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$63
crypto 33% −$407
other 26% +$218
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -11.4% -19.8% 31% 30% -13.2%
≤30d 61 -11.4% -19.8% 31% 30% -13.2%
≤90d 61 -11.4% -19.8% 31% 30% -13.2%
all 61 -11.4% -19.8% 31% 30% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.8% 30% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 26% -21.5%
15% -34.5% 26% -29.1%
20% -40.9% 25% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$29 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$44
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses19 / 42
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage4d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Sweden 40¢ 30¢ $100 $74 −$26 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$141 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $104 +$109 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $102 −$12 -12%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $112 −$110 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$23 +442%
Australia leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 +$67 +652%
Australia to score first vs. Türkiye? Jun 14 $20 +$40 +197%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$9 +9%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 14 $20 +$30 +146%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $66 −$65 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 +$40 +197%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $101 +$21 +21%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $20 +$46 +226%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $27 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 50m
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 40¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $106 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 3h
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 26¢ $86 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 6h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 6h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 7h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $102 8h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 BUY Over 12¢ $1 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 10h
Curaçao leading at halftime? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 10h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 10h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 12¢ $10 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.82 · official $73.82 (match) · 94 history records