Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:43:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

16 0x1605…c707 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 197d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$766 (-30%) realized −$768 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate44%7W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$136per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$13est.

Kalshi-fit53%portable

Net worth$402now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$177

7 days−$116

14 days−$116

30 days−$116

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-9.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+6.4%	-3.7%	56%	56%	-15.4%
≤30d	9	+6.4%	-3.7%	56%	56%	-15.4%
≤90d	9	+6.4%	-3.7%	56%	56%	-15.4%
all	16	+0.0%	-9.5%	44%	44%	-17.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.5%	44%	-17.3%
10%	-18.2%	44%	-25.2%
15%	-26.1%	44%	-32.4%
20%	-33.3%	44%	-39.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 46% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +0% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -0% → late +0% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$119 vs −$113 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.82 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage

Net worth$402

Realized−$768

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses7 / 9

Est. fees paid−$13

Open positions3

Markets (closed)16 / 19

History coverage197d

Avg bet$136

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	70¢	70¢	$250	$252	+$2 (+1%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	Austria	45¢	46¢	$120	$121	+$1 (+1%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Yes	20¢	20¢	$30	$29	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 17	$102	+$116	+114%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$202	+$105	+52%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 17	$31	−$30	-98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5)	Jun 17	$127	+$220	+172%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 17	$253	+$164	+65%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$402	−$398	-99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Jun 14	$81	−$80	-98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$355	−$350	-98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$253	+$138	+54%
Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026?	Feb 06	$100	−$54	-54%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-17?	Jan 17	$100	+$75	+75%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?	Jan 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31?	Jan 17	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025?	Jan 17	$97	−$44	-46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Jan 17	$6	+$17	+267%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Jan 17	$52	−$52	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	70¢	$252	39m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$31	44m
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	BUY Austria	45¢	$122	44m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	SELL Argentina	82¢	$51	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	97¢	$308	1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	SELL Argentina	81¢	$167	1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$31	2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	37¢	$102	2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	63¢	$202	2h
Spread: Norway (-2.5)	BUY Norway	36¢	$127	12h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	60¢	$51	12h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	60¢	$202	12h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	68¢	$402	35h
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	BUY Curaçao	50¢	$41	2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	BUY Curaçao	50¢	$41	2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	28¢	$102	2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	57¢	$253	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$390	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	64¢	$253	3d
Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026?	SELL Yes	32¢	$46	130d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$6	150d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$8	150d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$7	150d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$14	150d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$23	150d
Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026?	BUY Yes	70¢	$100	152d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$100	152d
Will Stable launch a token in 2025?	BUY No	0¢	$1	191d
Will Stable launch a token in 2025?	BUY No	0¢	$1	191d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31?	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	193d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $402.37 · official $402.37 (match) · 46 history records