Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:31:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
16 0x1604…6e8c crypto 510 markets active 1h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,242 (+0%) realized +$1,492 · open −$250
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate96%484W / 22L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$687per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$404now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$33
14 days+$40
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$2,140
finance 6% −$362
other 3% −$456
politics 2% −$388
tech 1% +$73
world 1% +$82
culture 0% +$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 17 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 132 +0.9% -8.7% 99% 0% -8.6%
all 506 -1.1% -10.5% 96% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 3% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 2% -17.9%
15% -26.9% 1% -25.8%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$992) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$96 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$404
Realized+$1,492
Unrealized−$250
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses484 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)506 / 510
History coverage280d
Avg bet$687
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 506 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $348 $348 −$1 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 51¢ 10¢ $201 $37 −$164 (-81%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 6¢ $100 $18 −$82 (-82%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 45¢ 16¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? Jun 18 $346 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $344 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $341 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? Jun 17 $337 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? Jun 17 $669 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $331 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $330 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $329 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $326 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 14? Jun 14 $324 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $322 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $321 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $318 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $315 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $314 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $308 +$6 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 4? May 04 $656 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4? May 04 $1,019 +$14 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 4? May 04 $1,113 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3? May 04 $465 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 3? May 03 $2,927 +$13 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 2? May 02 $574 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 2? May 02 $1,575 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 2? May 02 $1,945 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 2? May 02 $1,547 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 1? May 01 $2,258 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 1? May 01 $1,532 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? May 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $2,945 +$18 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $2,998 +$25 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 30? Apr 29 $1,728 +$22 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $342 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 29? Apr 28 $992 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $843 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $2,839 +$46 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 23? Apr 25 $497 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 24? Apr 25 $1,470 +$28 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $1,585 +$25 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $699 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $4,508 +$27 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $3,741 +$26 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 19? Apr 19 $4,262 +$24 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 19? Apr 19 $523 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 18? Apr 18 $493 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 18? Apr 18 $992 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 18? Apr 18 $1,944 +$18 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $2,637 +$32 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $497 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 16? Apr 16 $2,539 +$31 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $348 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $304 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $302 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $302 11h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $44 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $344 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $344 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $2 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $339 22h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $341 22h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $337 23h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $98 23h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $238 23h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $336 24h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $221 28h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $65 28h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $50 28h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $333 46h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $170 47h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $12 47h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $100 47h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $51 47h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $331 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $331 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $330 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $60 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $404.48 · official $404.83 (match) · 3250 history records