Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:50:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1603…913b sports 662 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$935 (-1%) realized +$1,843 · open −$2,778
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate58%364W / 259L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$146est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$30,266now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,629
7 days+$1,934
14 days+$1,940
30 days+$1,932
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$9,682
sports 11% +$8,712
crypto 2% −$7
world 1% −$13
politics 0% $0
finance 0% +$4
culture 0% −$11
weather 0% $0
tech 0% −$5
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -13.8% -22.0% 57% 38% -1.9%
≤30d 73 -3.9% -13.0% 73% 37% -2.0%
≤90d 335 -5.9% -14.9% 64% 32% -3.1%
all 623 -7.7% -16.5% 58% 34% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 34% -3.7%
10% -24.5% 25% -12.9%
15% -31.8% 21% -21.3%
20% -38.5% 15% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$37 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$30,266
Realized+$1,843
Unrealized−$2,778
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses364 / 259
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$146
Open positions39
Markets (closed)623 / 662
History coverage98d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 623 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $5,980 $6,452 +$472 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $5,699 $4,752 −$947 (-17%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $3,050 $4,002 +$953 (+31%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,548 $2,957 −$591 (-17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2,960 $2,714 −$246 (-8%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,200 $1,733 −$1,466 (-46%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,300 $1,289 −$11 (-1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,517 $1,222 −$295 (-19%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,137 $1,111 −$26 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,300 $1,027 −$273 (-21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $896 $977 +$80 (+9%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $600 $497 −$103 (-17%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $486 −$15 (-3%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $600 $300 −$300 (-50%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $253 $281 +$28 (+11%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $175 −$25 (-12%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 40¢ 27¢ $14 $10 −$5 (-32%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 89¢ 92¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 92¢ 94¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 68¢ 66¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Democratic Party win the SC-06 House seat? Yes 87¢ 93¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+7%)
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? No 86¢ 94¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+9%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 95¢ 92¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $606 −$448 -74%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,198 +$464 +14%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $200 +$103 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,004 +$148 +15%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $343 +$158 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $791 −$642 -81%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,115 −$1,017 -91%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,325 +$1,194 +90%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $4,008 +$8,101 +202%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5,493 −$5,330 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,466 +$156 +6%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 14 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 −$49 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $374 +$101 +27%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $92 −$69 -75%
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? Jun 14 $8 $0 +1%
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027? Jun 14 $8 $0 +3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $956 −$956 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $143 −$110 -77%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $530 +$231 +44%
First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election? Jun 09 $1 $0 +11%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Jun 06 $7 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $16 +$2 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 06 $5 +$1 +15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 06 $5 +$1 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $16 +$1 +7%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 04 $7 +$1 +16%
Will Josh Turek be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa? Jun 03 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Zach Wahls be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa? Jun 03 $5 +$1 +18%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 02 $7 $0 +4%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 01 $8 +$1 +12%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? May 30 $5 $0 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 30 $16 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $16 +$1 +9%
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? May 30 $6 +$1 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 30 $8 $0 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $8 +$1 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 28 $8 +$3 +33%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 35m? May 27 $8 $0 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 26 $8 +$2 +25%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? May 26 $5 +$1 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $16 +$3 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 26 $16 −$1 -8%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $8 +$7 +83%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 26 $15 −$2 -14%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 26 $16 −$8 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $515 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2,651 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $3,427 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $566 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $160 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $4 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $3 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $40 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $227 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $992 10h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $1,004 10h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 10h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 10h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $85 10h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $406 10h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $15 10h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $49 10h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $52 10h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $41 10h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 10h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 10h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 10h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $34 10h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 10h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $18 10h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 10h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30,265.84 · official $30,268.66 (match) · 2837 history records