Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:39:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1602…a56d crypto 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%28W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$4
other 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -4.8% -13.9% 47% 47% -14.3%
≤30d 59 -4.8% -13.9% 47% 47% -14.3%
≤90d 59 -4.8% -13.9% 47% 47% -14.3%
all 59 -4.8% -13.9% 47% 47% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 47% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 46% -22.5%
15% -29.6% 42% -30.0%
20% -36.5% 39% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses28 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$5 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records