Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:52:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
16 0x1601…4d4c world 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate42%33W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$3
politics 21% +$4
other 17% −$8
sports 14% −$1
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 29 +1.9% -7.8% 45% 10% -9.3%
≤90d 72 +0.2% -9.4% 40% 4% -9.5%
all 79 +0.5% -9.1% 42% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 5% -9.6%
10% -17.8% 4% -18.3%
15% -25.7% 1% -26.1%
20% -33.0% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses33 / 46
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)79 / 81
History coverage527d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $71 +$1 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $48 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $38 −$2 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $19 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $93 +$5 +6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $43 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $82 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $108 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $116 +$1 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $77 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $1 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $93 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $42 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $29 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $1 $0 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $61 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $50 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $3 +$1 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $1 $0 +10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $2 $0 +16%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 23 $15 −$2 -10%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $71 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $48 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 16 $32 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 -9%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $34 $0 -1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $33 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $32 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $71 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $150 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $8 $0 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $32 +$1 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 19 $36 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 15 $95 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $37 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $7 4h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $26 4h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $5 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 69¢ $37 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 67¢ $36 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $36 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $36 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $40 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $40 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $36 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 84¢ $15 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 84¢ $4 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 84¢ $19 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 25¢ $18 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 26¢ $6 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 26¢ $13 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $24 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $18 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $43 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.97 · official $0.00 · 324 history records