Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:46:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

16
0x1600…952f
sports · 21 markets active 2h ago
3.0score
+$106 +19%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$106 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$0
Realized+$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses12 / 9
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage3d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 0 History 21 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$116
7 days+$106
14 days+$106
30 days+$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 52¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 65¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 76¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Yes 49¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 16¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Legacy 32¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 33¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $121 +$4 +3%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $2 +$8 +413%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $131 +$48 +37%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5 +$2 +42%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$2 +35%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $101 +$89 +88%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $74 +$31 +42%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 +$3 +51%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5 +$1 +26%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 +$2 +105%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 86% +$76
other 14% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $109 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $11 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 19¢ $2 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 64¢ $71 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 26¢ $16 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $180 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $131 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $50 4h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $51 4h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 76¢ $5 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $5 14h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $5 16h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 73¢ $5 16h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $8 17h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $5 23h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 25h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $190 25h
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 27h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $101 27h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 35h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1 35h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $8 35h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 36h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 100¢ $5 36h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 96¢ $5 37h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $74 37h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 100¢ $6 37h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 79¢ $5 40h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 32¢ $1 40h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 48¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.3% -9.8% 57% 48% +7.9%
≤30d 21 -0.3% -9.8% 57% 48% +7.9%
≤90d 21 -0.3% -9.8% 57% 48% +7.9%
all 21 -0.3% -9.8% 57% 48% +7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 48% +7.9%
10% -18.4% 48% -2.4%
15% -26.3% 43% -11.8%
20% -33.5% 19% -20.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records