Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:59:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
15 0x15fc…cda4 world 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate47%36W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$1
14 days+$18
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% +$5
other 19% +$3
finance 2% +$3
politics 1% −$7
sports 1% +$2
economics 0% +$1
crypto 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.5% -9.1% 45% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 29 +43.8% +30.1% 52% 7% -9.5%
≤90d 33 +38.5% +25.4% 55% 6% -9.4%
all 76 +15.1% +4.2% 47% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.2% 4% -9.5%
10% -5.8% 4% -18.1%
15% -14.9% 4% -26.0%
20% -23.2% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses36 / 40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 76
History coverage476d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $247 +$1 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $177 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $160 +$2 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $234 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $202 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $46 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $317 −$2 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $242 +$3 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $13 +$1 +5%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $184 −$3 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $172 +$7 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $217 +$7 +3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $3 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $297 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $115 +$3 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $139 +$6 +4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $146 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $317 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $87 +$2 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $320 +$1 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $157 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $142 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $284 +$10 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $131 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $153 +$3 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $139 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $129 −$39 -30%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $63 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 14 $1,022 +$4 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $1,933 +$8 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 11 $1,018 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 18 $6 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 23 $24 −$1 -2%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 12 $12 $0 +2%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 04 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? Oct 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Oct 04 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 02 $4 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 24 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $81 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $24 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $58 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $177 5h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $177 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $2 29h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $46 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $30 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 37h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $168 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $168 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $46 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $23 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $22 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $34 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $34 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $35 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $9 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $115 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $159 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $129 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $30 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $160 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $94 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.57 · official $0.00 (match) · 297 history records