Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:48:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
15 0x15fc…e2b0 sports 118 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,180 (+8%) realized +$1,262 · open −$82
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%53W / 57L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$202est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$664now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$80
7 days+$1,422
14 days+$1,448
30 days+$930
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$1,275
other 32% −$651
crypto 3% +$69
tech 1% −$97
world 0% +$102
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 +32.6% +20.0% 50% 46% +6.7%
≤30d 106 +19.6% +8.3% 49% 44% +0.8%
≤90d 110 +16.3% +5.2% 48% 43% -0.3%
all 110 +16.3% +5.2% 48% 43% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.2% 43% -0.3%
10% -4.9% 38% -9.9%
15% -14.1% 33% -18.6%
20% -22.5% 32% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$92 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$664
Realized+$1,262
Unrealized−$82
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses53 / 57
Est. fees paid−$202
Open positions8
Markets (closed)110 / 118
History coverage54d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $402 $331 −$71 (-18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 82¢ $168 $163 −$5 (-3%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 47¢ 46¢ $73 $70 −$3 (-4%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+19%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 80¢ 62¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-23%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Under 22¢ 22¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$90 +177%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1,901 +$32 +2%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $304 −$232 -76%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $72 −$70 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $112 +$177 +158%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $182 +$56 +31%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$20 +20%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$7 -72%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 −$46 -74%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $427 −$299 -70%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $61 +$55 +90%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $353 −$350 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $357 −$350 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 +$55 +216%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 +$88 +172%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $306 +$551 +180%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$77 +76%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $214 +$332 +155%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $31 +$16 +51%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $31 +$24 +79%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $75 −$74 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $741 +$60 +8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $32 +$78 +244%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $31 −$4 -14%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $503 −$500 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $30 +$116 +388%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $205 +$215 +105%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $15 +$155 +1010%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $607 −$571 -94%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$3 -34%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $102 +$55 +54%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$83 -82%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $358 +$58 +16%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $80 −$60 -75%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $81 +$68 +83%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $31 −$31 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $21 +$113 +549%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 14m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 29m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $100 45m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,933 46m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,901 49m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 50m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 83¢ $41 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 38¢ $67 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 34¢ $46 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 34¢ $1 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 34¢ $1 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 34¢ $1 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 34¢ $1 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 34¢ $2 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 34¢ $1 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $304 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $62 2h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Iraq 83¢ $210 4h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Iraq 53¢ $122 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Under 32¢ $15 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 12¢ $3 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 10¢ $14 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 21¢ $31 5h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 67¢ $172 5h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 43¢ $102 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 21¢ $31 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $112 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $10 5h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $10 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $663.66 · official $663.65 (match) · 311 history records