Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:27:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15fc…6155 other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$176 (-9%) realized −$169 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$954now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$191
politics 29% +$66
world 15% −$14
culture 1% −$22
sports 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-43.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 24 -33.3% -39.6% 54% 29% -16.8%
all 32 -37.2% -43.2% 47% 25% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.2% 25% -19.1%
10% -48.6% 16% -26.9%
15% -53.6% 6% -33.9%
20% -58.1% 6% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -61% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$18 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$954
Realized−$169
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)32 / 37
History coverage99d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 87¢ 88¢ $160 $162 +$2 (+1%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 41¢ 57¢ $114 $161 +$47 (+41%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 64¢ 19¢ $80 $24 −$56 (-70%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 29 $208 −$207 -99%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $200 +$9 +4%
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $200 +$10 +5%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $50 +$13 +25%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $300 +$18 +6%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? May 02 $20 +$3 +15%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting? May 02 $105 +$12 +12%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeti May 02 $260 +$50 +19%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 1.5 Apr 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-04-11? Apr 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 10 $10 −$10 -98%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 10 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Iran strike UAE again in March? Apr 06 $3 +$1 +26%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $5 +$6 +129%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5 Apr 05 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Iran strike Turkey in March? Apr 04 $30 +$2 +8%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30? Apr 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Santos FC (-1.5) Apr 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Epstein "I beat Bush" Email unredacted by March 31? Apr 01 $5 $0 +6%
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-04-01? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-04-01? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Will "Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man" be the top US Netflix movie th Mar 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will "War Machine" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
EC Vitória vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 23 $1 +$2 +203%
Spread: Santos FC (-1.5) Mar 23 $1 $0 +5%
Spread: CR Flamengo (-2.5) Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 22, 2026? Mar 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia again in March? Mar 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $100 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 20¢ $20 29d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 84¢ $50 30d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 42¢ $51 45d
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $200 52d
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $200 52d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $100 52d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $50 52d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $318 52d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 45¢ $30 62d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 36¢ $20 62d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 91¢ $300 62d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 52¢ $20 78d
Cruzeiro EC vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $10 78d
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 78d
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 78d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeti BUY Yes 91¢ $100 78d
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting? BUY No 90¢ $100 79d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeti BUY Yes 90¢ $30 79d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $10 82d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 86¢ $50 82d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? BUY No 87¢ $20 83d
Will Iran strike UAE again in March? SELL No 16¢ $4 83d
Will Santos FC win on 2026-04-05? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 84d
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $5 84d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 16¢ $5 85d
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 85d
Spread: Santos FC (-1.5) BUY Santos FC $1 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $954.39 · official $954.39 (match) · 79 history records