Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:08:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
15 0x15fb…252d finance 193 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 86d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$24,251 (-5%) realized −$27,651 · open +$3,400
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate56%104W / 83L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,357per market
Trades / day37.4pace
Fees−$972est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$43,028now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 87d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$4,260
finance 25% −$235
sports 12% +$216
other 11% −$5,263
politics 5% +$19,704
crypto 5% −$6,928
tech 0% +$60
economics 0% −$3
weather 0% −$137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -64.2% -67.6% 25% 0% -63.7%
≤30d 45 -14.5% -22.6% 56% 33% -14.5%
≤90d 187 -5.9% -14.9% 56% 28% -9.6%
all 187 -5.9% -14.9% 56% 28% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 28% -9.6%
10% -23.0% 22% -18.2%
15% ← realistic here -30.4% 18% -26.1%
20% -37.3% 14% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$1,989) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$727 vs −$913 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$43,028
Realized−$27,651
Unrealized+$3,400
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses104 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$972
Open positions7
Markets (closed)187 / 193
History coverage87d ⚠
Avg bet$2,357
Trades / day37.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 78¢ 86¢ $37,602 $41,286 +$3,684 (+10%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $917 $928 +$10 (+1%)
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Yes 51¢ 38¢ $1,099 $806 −$293 (-27%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 65¢ 40¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? Jun 29 $414 +$12 +3%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $283 −$280 -99%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $467 −$278 -60%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $370 −$370 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $1,972 +$248 +13%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $547 −$547 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $490 +$510 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $21 +$9 +41%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $304 +$201 +66%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $163 +$3 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,280 +$720 +56%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,255 +$602 +48%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1,319 +$1,179 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $146 −$146 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 16 $4,789 +$155 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $302 −$300 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $808 −$800 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $4,633 +$33 +1%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $1,838 +$1,049 +57%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $382 −$382 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $200 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $1,218 +$1,135 +93%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 9? Jun 09 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $5,627 +$5,690 +101%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $101 +$158 +156%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 08 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 08 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 08 $889 −$889 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 08 $1,008 −$1,008 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 08 $1,182 −$1,182 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 08 $19,801 −$4,897 -25%
LA Mayoral Election: Spencer Pratt receives Over/Under 25%? Jun 08 $77 −$77 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $2,084 +$12 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $2,325 +$5 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $345 +$21 +6%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $50 +$70 +140%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? Jun 02 $9,527 +$371 +4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 22? Jun 02 $772 −$719 -93%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 02 $1,328 −$1,328 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? Jun 02 $7,646 −$6,366 -83%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 01 $570 +$430 +75%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 31 $77 +$45 +59%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $3,324 +$2,977 +90%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on May 28? May 28 $180 +$7 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $1,778 +$72 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $9,532 −$1,411 -15%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $4,644 −$262 -6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $4,894 +$4,002 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $90 2h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 3h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $8 3h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $28 3h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 3h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 3h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $7 3h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $720 3h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 4h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 5h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 6h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $50 7h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 7h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Down 36¢ $69 10h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Down 36¢ $2 10h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Down 36¢ $72 10h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Down 36¢ $72 10h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Down 36¢ $1 10h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Down 35¢ $70 10h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Down 35¢ $47 10h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Down 35¢ $2 10h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Down 35¢ $2 10h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Down 35¢ $19 10h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Down 35¢ $51 10h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Down 35¢ $4 11h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Down 35¢ $13 11h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? SELL Down 35¢ $2 11h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 34¢ $68 12h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 34¢ $68 12h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 34¢ $68 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43,027.80 · official $43,027.80 (match) · 3500 history records