Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:52:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
15 0x15fa…59db other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%12W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$146
14 days+$110
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$7
sports 11% +$10
world 3% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +41.3% +27.8% 36% 36% +11.8%
≤30d 40 +5.5% -4.5% 30% 30% -10.6%
≤90d 40 +5.5% -4.5% 30% 30% -10.6%
all 40 +5.5% -4.5% 30% 30% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 30% -10.6%
10% -13.7% 30% -19.2%
15% -22.0% 30% -27.0%
20% -29.7% 30% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$15 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses12 / 28
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage24d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $4 $0 -8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $203 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$29 -96%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$30 -59%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $152 +$98 +64%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $35 +$38 +109%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $46 +$64 +140%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -16%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -14%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$11 +344%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$14 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$31 +596%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 11 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $29 +$64 +223%
Will Qatar vs. El Salvador end in a draw? Jun 07 $6 +$18 +291%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Cayman Islands win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Benin win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Serbia end in a draw? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $15 +$12 +79%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $51 −$51 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-03? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01? May 31 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $25 +$30 +118%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $4 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 67¢ $202 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $203 8h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 47¢ $20 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $250 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $152 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $35 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $11 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $46 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $12 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $28 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 7d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 76 history records