Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:59:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15fa…3f92 crypto 193 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (286 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate66%126W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day286.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (286 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 191 +1.2% -8.5% 66% 38% -8.7%
≤30d 191 +1.2% -8.5% 66% 38% -8.7%
≤90d 191 +1.2% -8.5% 66% 38% -8.7%
all 191 +1.2% -8.5% 66% 38% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover286.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 38% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 24% -17.5%
15% -25.2% 13% -25.4%
20% -32.6% 9% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses126 / 65
Open positions2
Markets (closed)191 / 193
History coverage2d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day286.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 49¢ 48¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 50¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 28 $32 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 28 $32 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $32 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $32 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 28 $32 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$27 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 28 $18 +$14 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$13 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$14 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $45 +$23 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 28 $62 +$9 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 28 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 28 $12 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 28 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 28 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 28 $13 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 28 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 28 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 28 $18 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 28 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $12 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $31 +$10 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 28 $21 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 28 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 28 $17 −$5 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 28 $18 +$8 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $31 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $33 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $33 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $31 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $33 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $44 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $34 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $31 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $38 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.66 · official $30.51 (match) · 696 history records