Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:11:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15fa…088d crypto 1412 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$346 (-6%) realized −$346 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%609W / 803L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day31.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$20
14 days−$191
30 days−$253
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$515
politics 1% −$49
other 0% −$5
sports 0% −$21
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -13.7% -21.9% 44% 40% -23.7%
≤30d 581 -19.5% -27.2% 39% 35% -23.2%
≤90d 1412 -16.4% -24.4% 43% 40% -19.5%
all 1412 -16.4% -24.4% 43% 40% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.4% 40% -19.5%
10% ← realistic here -31.6% 35% -27.2%
15% -38.2% 29% -34.2%
20% -44.3% 24% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$346
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses609 / 803
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1412 / 1412
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day31.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1412 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $0 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records