Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:40:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15f9…5590 crypto 824 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (484 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$47 (-1%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate75%619W / 205L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day483.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$127
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (484 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 824 -3.6% -12.7% 75% 2% -11.0%
≤30d 824 -3.6% -12.7% 75% 2% -11.0%
≤90d 824 -3.6% -12.7% 75% 2% -11.0%
all 824 -3.6% -12.7% 75% 2% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover483.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 2% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 2% -19.6%
15% -28.7% 1% -27.3%
20% -35.7% 1% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses619 / 205
Open positions0
Markets (closed)824 / 824
History coverage4d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day483.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 824 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.31 · official $0.00 (match) · 2750 history records