Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:42:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15f4…2a4d crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$28 (+10%) realized +$29 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%4W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$83
other 20% $0
sports 6% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -27.5% -34.4% 27% 27% -27.9%
≤30d 15 -27.5% -34.4% 27% 27% -27.9%
≤90d 15 -27.5% -34.4% 27% 27% -27.9%
all 15 -27.5% -34.4% 27% 27% -27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.4% 27% -27.9%
10% ← realistic here -40.7% 20% -34.8%
15% -46.4% 20% -41.1%
20% -51.7% 13% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -75% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$9 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$29
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses4 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$20 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$6 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$14 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $45 +$10 +22%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -91%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$29 +287%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $5 +$14 +272%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $21 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? SELL Yes 99¢ $55 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 82¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $40 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 21¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? SELL No 99¢ $19 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.02 · official $13.02 (match) · 33 history records