Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
15 0x15f4…acb3 sports 33 markets active 4h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$458 (+39%) realized +$460 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%17W / 15L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$382
14 days+$395
30 days+$394
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$347
other 2% +$9
crypto 1% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +4.1% -5.8% 54% 50% +30.3%
≤30d 32 -2.3% -11.6% 53% 47% +22.3%
≤90d 32 -2.3% -11.6% 53% 47% +22.3%
all 32 -2.3% -11.6% 53% 47% +22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 47% +22.3%
10% -20.1% 34% +10.6%
15% -27.8% 31% -0.1%
20% -34.9% 22% -9.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +35% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$13 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.97 per $1 lost it wins $2.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$460
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses17 / 15
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage14d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$37 +288%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $293 +$167 +57%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $18 +$14 +78%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $35 −$35 -99%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$2 +21%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$7 +37%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $22 −$15 -71%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $23 +$2 +10%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $152 +$209 +137%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $50 −$30 -60%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $123 +$59 +48%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $42 +$14 +33%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $18 −$18 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $8 +$1 +7%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $17 −$16 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $13 +$2 +17%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $1 +$3 +291%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $71 +$56 +79%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $79 +$10 +12%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $36 −$35 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $33 −$2 -8%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $16 −$16 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $3 $0 +14%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - LFL Playoffs Jun 04 $13 +$1 +7%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $9 −$1 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 4h
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 7h
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 8h
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 8h
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 26h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 98¢ $209 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 98¢ $2 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 98¢ $15 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 94¢ $207 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 55¢ $28 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 55¢ $56 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 56¢ $48 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 56¢ $8 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 70¢ $70 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 51¢ $45 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 51¢ $6 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 60¢ $37 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 60¢ $23 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL LYON 100¢ $31 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 55¢ $18 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 56¢ $35 3d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner SELL Solary 100¢ $28 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.77 · official $7.77 (match) · 117 history records