Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15f0…1616 weather 34 markets active 5d ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate41%14W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day82.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.8% -10.3% 41% 6% -9.8%
≤30d 34 -0.8% -10.3% 41% 6% -9.8%
≤90d 34 -0.8% -10.3% 41% 6% -9.8%
all 34 -0.8% -10.3% 41% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 6% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 3% -18.4%
15% -26.7% 3% -26.3%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage2d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day82.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Jun Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? SELL Yes 62¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? SELL Yes 87¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? SELL Yes 86¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June SELL No 100¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records