Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:02:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

15 0x15f0…be37 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$27 (-17%) realized −$27 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip

Net edge-34%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$41per market

Trades / day0.8pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-34.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-27.3%	-34.2%	50%	50%	-33.9%
≤30d	2	-27.3%	-34.2%	50%	50%	-33.9%
≤90d	2	-27.3%	-34.2%	50%	50%	-33.9%
all	2	-27.3%	-34.2%	50%	50%	-33.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-34.2%	50%	-33.9%
10%	-40.5%	50%	-40.2%
15%	-46.2%	50%	-46.0%
20%	-51.5%	0%	-51.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -27% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -27% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$23 vs −$50 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.46 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$60

Realized−$27

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage6d

Avg bet$41

Trades / day0.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	Yes	46¢	46¢	$30	$30	+$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	52¢	52¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$50	+$23	+46%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	46¢	$30	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	52¢	$30	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	38¢	$51	33h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$73	6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$50	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.04 · official $60.04 (match) · 5 history records