Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:29:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15f0…7f8c politics 176 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$4 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%13W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 23% −$3
other 22% +$4
politics 21% −$3
economics 11% −$1
culture 8% −$2
crypto 7% −$1
world 6% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 2 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 175 +0.1% -9.4% 7% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses13 / 162
Open positions1
Markets (closed)175 / 176
History coverage164d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $55 $55 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 20 $58 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Feb 20 $112 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 20 $65 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 20 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 20 $179 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 20 $94 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 20 $25 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 20 $112 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 20 $310 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 20 $65 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 20 $126 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 20 $87 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 20 $116 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 20 $55 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 20 $256 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 20 $62 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 20 $253 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 19 $299 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 19 $61 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Feb 19 $126 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 19 $180 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $64 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 19 $127 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 19 $64 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 19 $229 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 19 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 19 $127 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 17 $123 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 17 $61 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 17 $61 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 17 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 17 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 17 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Feb 16 $127 $0 -0%
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 12-15, 2026? Feb 16 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 16 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 16 $66 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 16 $110 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 16 $64 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $55 1h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $53 11d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $54 11d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 93¢ $10 24d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 93¢ $10 30d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 93¢ $47 30d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 93¢ $8 30d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 93¢ $40 30d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me SELL No 95¢ $57 117d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY No 96¢ $58 117d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 94¢ $58 117d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 95¢ $58 117d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 94¢ $54 117d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 95¢ $54 117d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $61 117d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $61 117d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 94¢ $59 117d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 94¢ $59 117d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $59 117d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 98¢ $59 117d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $54 117d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $54 117d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 117d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $54 117d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $54 117d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5 117d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $59 117d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 96¢ $59 117d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $61 117d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $61 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.66 · official $54.66 (match) · 551 history records