Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:41:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
15 0x15ec…267d sports 156 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$13,746 (+21%) realized +$13,849 · open −$103
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%74W / 79L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$424per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$467est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$305now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,019
7 days+$13,170
14 days+$11,678
30 days+$12,763
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$5,235
tech 28% +$3,268
other 20% +$5,800
finance 3% −$1,068
crypto 2% +$121
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 118 +13.3% +2.5% 53% 53% +11.4%
≤30d 149 +1.2% -8.4% 47% 46% +8.6%
≤90d 152 +3.7% -6.2% 48% 47% +9.2%
all 153 +3.8% -6.1% 48% 48% +9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 48% +9.3%
10% -15.0% 46% -1.2%
15% -23.3% 39% -10.7%
20% -30.8% 33% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$407 vs −$211 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$305
Realized+$13,849
Unrealized−$103
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses74 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$467
Open positions3
Markets (closed)153 / 156
History coverage99d
Avg bet$424
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 50¢ $113 $304 +$191 (+168%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $205 $0 −$204 (-100%)
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $255 −$200 -78%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $100 +$650 +650%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2 +$3 +127%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $204 +$196 +96%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $183 −$183 -100%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $102 −$94 -92%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1,500 +$1,500 +100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $853 +$757 +89%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $165 +$135 +82%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $365 −$365 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $112 −$112 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $325 −$325 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $302 −$302 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $145 −$145 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $105 −$105 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,960 +$2,040 +104%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $114 +$114 +100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $394 −$391 -99%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $640 −$640 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $94 −$94 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $324 +$276 +85%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $143 +$162 +114%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $692 −$692 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $59 −$59 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $296 −$296 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $820 +$680 +83%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $260 −$209 -81%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $210 −$15 -7%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $857 +$225 +26%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $4,764 +$2,339 +49%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $480 −$280 -58%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $558 −$300 -54%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $360 −$340 -95%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $248 +$152 +61%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $255 +$245 +96%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1,088 +$340 +31%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $200 −$165 -82%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $480 −$480 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,694 +$4,701 +278%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,656 −$1,656 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,042 +$156 +15%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $105 −$105 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $147 −$147 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $52 −$40 -76%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $116 −$114 -99%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $480 +$320 +67%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $155 +$145 +93%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $372 +$228 +61%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $369 +$128 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $48 5m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 27m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 22¢ $109 27m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $68 32m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 19¢ $94 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $92 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 11¢ $55 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $184 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $0 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $70 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 23¢ $14 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 23¢ $30 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 23¢ $30 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 23¢ $30 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 51¢ $190 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 51¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 51¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 18¢ $36 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $100 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 4h
Algeria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 4h
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $102 4h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $305.24 · official $305.24 (match) · 1068 history records