Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:15:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
15 0x15eb…980d other 190 markets active 3h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$743 (+29%) realized +$743 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate89%161W / 20L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$282
7 days+$282
14 days+$283
30 days+$283
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$4
politics 36% +$441
tech 13% +$282
finance 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +6.9% -3.3% 87% 7% +58.7%
≤30d 56 +2.0% -7.7% 96% 2% +34.7%
≤90d 147 -0.5% -10.0% 95% 4% +24.2%
all 181 +2.0% -7.7% 89% 5% +16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 5% +16.8%
10% -16.6% 4% +5.6%
15% -24.6% 4% -4.6%
20% -32.0% 3% -13.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×48.68 per $1 lost it wins $48.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$743
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses161 / 20
Open positions9
Markets (closed)181 / 190
History coverage134d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 25 $306 +$282 +92%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $5 $0 +7%
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 +2%
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $49 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $25 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $47 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $25 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $49 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $25 2h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $45 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $23 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $45 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $23 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $45 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $23 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $45 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $23 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $44 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $23 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $44 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $23 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $44 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $23 3h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $44 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.89 · official $44.89 (match) · 569 history records