Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:41:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
15 0x15eb…1b18 other 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$45 (-0%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate12%15W / 105L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$19
politics 38% −$17
sports 5% −$12
world 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 96 -3.3% -12.5% 5% 3% -9.7%
all 120 -4.0% -13.1% 12% 8% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 8% -9.7%
10% -21.4% 5% -18.3%
15% -29.0% 3% -26.2%
20% -36.0% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×4.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses15 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)120 / 122
History coverage122d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 21 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $40 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $42 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $49 $0 -0%
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $33 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $38 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $269 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $795 −$1 -0%
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 26 $205 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $541 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $236 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $763 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $738 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $296 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $438 −$1 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $281 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 15 $227 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $225 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $289 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $296 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 11 $235 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $252 −$1 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $253 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $278 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $244 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $212 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $221 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 03 $218 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $290 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $295 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $210 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $273 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $1,165 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 29 $216 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $271 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 20 $208 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $234 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $234 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $260 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $301 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $215 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 1h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $45 3d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 3d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 5d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 5d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 6d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 6d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 6d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $30 7d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $30 13d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 16d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 17d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $40 18d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 18d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 19d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 20d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $49 20d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 20d
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 20d
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 22d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 27d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 27d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 28d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 28d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $269 30d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $269 30d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $231 30d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $231 31d
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $205 31d
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $205 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.10 · official $79.10 (match) · 356 history records