Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:28:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

15
0x15e9…c2e5
crypto · 14 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$6 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 13 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Up 57¢ 96¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+69%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -14.8% -23.0% 54% 46% -22.3%
≤30d 13 -14.8% -23.0% 54% 46% -22.3%
≤90d 13 -14.8% -23.0% 54% 46% -22.3%
all 13 -14.8% -23.0% 54% 46% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 46% -22.3%
10% -30.3% 38% -29.8%
15% -37.1% 31% -36.6%
20% -43.2% 31% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.46 · official $8.03 (match) · 24 history records