Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:46:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
15 0x15e8…49ec crypto 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 575d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$563 (+8%) realized +$563 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate83%64W / 13L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% +$31
crypto 24% +$27
tech 16% +$29
sports 15% +$462
politics 11% +$12
world 8% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 18 +0.5% -9.1% 94% 0% -9.2%
all 77 +0.3% -9.3% 83% 21% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 21% -2.4%
10% -18.0% 12% -11.7%
15% -25.9% 8% -20.2%
20% -33.1% 1% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×4.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×26.32 per $1 lost it wins $26.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

575d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized+$563
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses64 / 13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)77 / 80
History coverage575d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 24 $67 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in May? May 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? May 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? May 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May? May 12 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? May 04 $58 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 04 $73 +$1 +2%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? Apr 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 03 $24 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? Apr 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Apr 03 $25 +$1 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Apr 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in March? Mar 26 $129 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February? Mar 10 $129 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 23 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Feb 23 $12 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Feb 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Feb 23 $47 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 06 $128 +$1 +0%
Spurs vs. Pacers Jan 03 $950 +$468 +49%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $51 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Nov 14 $51 $0 +1%
Will Oracle be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 05 $51 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Augus Oct 14 $51 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $376 +$7 +2%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times April 18–25? Apr 25 $366 +$11 +3%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 11–18? Apr 18 $362 +$4 +1%
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times April 4 - 11? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 02 $352 +$15 +4%
Will Elon Musk tweet 650-699 times February 7-14? Feb 19 $342 +$10 +3%
Will Elon Musk tweet less than 300 times February 7-14? Feb 11 $338 +$4 +1%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 08 $336 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $3000 by Wednesday? Feb 06 $332 +$4 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? Feb 05 $75 +$4 +5%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ja Feb 05 $250 +$3 +1%
Will Biden pardon SBF? Jan 21 $317 +$8 +3%
Will Biden pardon Ross Ulbricht? Jan 15 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Biden pardon Edward Snowden? Jan 13 $319 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by January 31, 2025? Jan 09 $126 −$2 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $3,000 in December? Jan 07 $35 +$6 +16%
Will Dragan Primorac be the next President of Croatia? Jan 07 $71 +$2 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in December? Dec 29 $11 +$1 +9%
Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross more than $25m on 3-day opening weekend Dec 24 $30 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $4,100.00 in December? Dec 24 $30 +$7 +23%
Petrino vs. Jacoby Dec 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $50 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $50 24d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $67 24d
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in May? SELL No 100¢ $33 24d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? SELL No 100¢ $32 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $67 36d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $31 36d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May? SELL No 100¢ $35 36d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $32 44d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $35 44d
Will Ethereum dip to $600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $33 44d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $31 44d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $58 63d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 63d
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? SELL No 100¢ $57 63d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $40 63d
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? BUY No 100¢ $57 75d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $40 75d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 75d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 100¢ $27 83d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $25 83d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $24 83d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $28 83d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $25 83d
Will Solana dip to $20 in March? SELL No 100¢ $129 83d
Will Solana dip to $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $129 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.02 · official $132.02 (match) · 622 history records