Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:51:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15e6…2857 other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate36%15W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% $0
other 30% +$2
finance 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
politics 3% +$1
tech 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.5% -10.0% 14% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 14 +0.0% -9.5% 21% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 14 +0.0% -9.5% 21% 0% -9.5%
all 42 -5.3% -14.3% 36% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 7% -9.5%
10% -22.5% 5% -18.2%
15% -30.0% 2% -26.1%
20% -36.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses15 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage481d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 78¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $88 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $40 −$1 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $44 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 11 $44 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $41 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $45 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $51 +$2 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $48 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $45 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $36 +$1 +2%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 31 $2 −$2 -76%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 26 $11 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 24 $11 $0 +2%
Will CHEGA win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative elect May 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 15 $20 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Austria qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 14 $1 −$1 -56%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 10 $2 +$1 +34%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 10 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 08 $11 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 2–9? May 07 $11 $0 +2%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? May 06 $12 $0 +4%
Will Alabama win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 27 $9 $0 +2%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 25 $2 +$1 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $44 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $6 21h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $6 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 79¢ $40 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $4 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $36 41h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 41h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 43h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $40 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $44 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $44 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $44 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 55¢ $32 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 55¢ $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 57¢ $34 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $2 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $40 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $7 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $35 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $12 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $20 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 35¢ $22 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 35¢ $2 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 35¢ $22 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 35¢ $45 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 92¢ $11 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.57 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records