Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:11:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.5
score
15 0x15e5…d3fe sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$17,450 (+62%) realized +$16,027 · open +$1,423
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$1,399per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$513est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$2,621now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 44d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$17,395
other 6% +$965
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 14 -1.5% -10.9% 29% 29% +40.1%
≤90d 18 +25.2% +13.3% 39% 39% +47.7%
all 18 +25.2% +13.3% 39% 39% +47.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.3% 39% +47.7%
10% +2.4% 39% +33.6%
15% -7.5% 39% +20.7%
20% -16.5% 39% +8.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +63% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$1,741) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +148% → late -98% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4,498 vs −$1,323 · ×3.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$2,621
Realized+$16,027
Unrealized+$1,423
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$513
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage44d
Avg bet$1,399
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fares Chaïbi: 1+ goals Yes 23¢ 55¢ $1,000 $2,385 +$1,385 (+138%)
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Algeria? Yes $198 $236 +$39 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
O/U 3.5 Rounds Jun 15 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Sean Strickland win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $72 −$72 -100%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $366 −$366 -100%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $617 −$617 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,741 −$1,407 -81%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $1,075 −$1,075 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $1,029 −$1,029 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2,109 −$2,109 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $8,087 −$7,538 -93%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5,191 +$19,527 +376%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $508 +$523 +103%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $3,055 +$2,603 +85%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,536 +$5,959 +388%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $304 +$222 +73%
Will the fight be won by submission? May 10 $102 +$102 +101%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $635 +$2,550 +402%
Will Tatsuro Taira win by KO or TKO? May 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes $203 32m
Fares Chaïbi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $1,023 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $512 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $993 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $512 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $2,048 7d
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 43¢ $61 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 14¢ $103 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $409 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $51 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 51¢ $549 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $512 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 19¢ $512 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Derrick Lewis $333 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $205 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $1,024 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $477 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $3,551 8d
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Under 99¢ $1,031 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $312 8d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 48¢ $508 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $5,658 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $409 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 41¢ $66 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 41¢ $163 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 41¢ $17 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 46¢ $276 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 19¢ $717 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $179 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 26¢ $909 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,620.69 · official $2,620.97 (match) · 71 history records