Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:16:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15e5…55c3 crypto 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (133 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate59%40W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day132.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$134
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (133 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +2.1% -7.6% 59% 53% -17.5%
≤30d 68 +2.1% -7.6% 59% 53% -17.5%
≤90d 68 +2.1% -7.6% 59% 53% -17.5%
all 68 +2.1% -7.6% 59% 53% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover132.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 53% -17.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 41% -25.4%
15% -24.5% 29% -32.6%
20% -31.9% 26% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses40 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage1d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day132.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $48 −$47 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $163 −$64 -39%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $13 −$7 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $62 +$16 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $92 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $61 +$12 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $93 −$26 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $132 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $59 +$10 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $64 −$27 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $17 +$9 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $46 −$7 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $58 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $85 −$20 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $89 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $36 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $67 −$16 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $34 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $34 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $33 +$15 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $32 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $33 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$4 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$6 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$10 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $48 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $81 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $82 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $9 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 17¢ $1 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 83¢ $5 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $31 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 220 history records