Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:10:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
15 0x15e4…7ba4 sports 177 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,967 (+1%) realized +$2,421 · open −$454
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%73W / 102L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$833per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$2,710est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,531now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 40d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$6,949
other 4% −$469
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -2.8% -12.0% 50% 43% +10.4%
≤30d 129 -13.7% -21.9% 41% 40% -12.9%
≤90d 175 -12.3% -20.7% 42% 41% -14.1%
all 175 -12.3% -20.7% 42% 41% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 41% -14.1%
10% -28.2% 38% -22.3%
15% -35.2% 36% -29.8%
20% -41.5% 32% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$755 vs −$609 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$1,531
Realized+$2,421
Unrealized−$454
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses73 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$2,710
Open positions2
Markets (closed)175 / 177
History coverage40d
Avg bet$833
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $1,586 $1,531 −$55 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 32¢ 0¢ $400 $1 −$399 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $1,024 +$1,000 +98%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $1,026 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,281 +$2,171 +170%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,653 +$1,725 +104%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $608 +$416 +68%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $621 +$618 +100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,206 −$1,184 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $545 +$663 +122%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $452 −$443 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $398 −$391 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $543 −$533 -98%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $33 −$33 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $615 −$604 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $501 −$491 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $389 −$381 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $723 −$705 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 10 $2,797 −$1,452 -52%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $456 −$448 -98%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $1,492 +$1,372 +92%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $623 +$756 +121%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $1,237 −$1,069 -86%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $606 −$194 -32%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $1,081 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $284 −$277 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1,777 +$195 +11%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $717 −$704 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $615 −$600 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $891 −$871 -98%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $886 −$489 -55%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1,405 −$1,386 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $973 −$954 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $1,729 −$1,700 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1,633 +$1,068 +65%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $4,721 +$1,312 +28%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,661 −$558 -34%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $538 −$530 -98%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $193 −$189 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $891 +$832 +93%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $791 −$776 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $782 −$186 -24%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $711 −$697 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $1,060 +$1,326 +125%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $1,157 −$476 -41%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1,094 −$1,075 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $887 +$356 +40%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $706 −$694 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $795 +$1,135 +143%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $989 −$975 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1,010 +$465 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $1,614 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 32¢ $408 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $1,024 8h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1,027 8h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,026 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $3,452 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 37¢ $484 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 68¢ $1,010 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $797 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $3,379 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $1,023 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 99¢ $1,024 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $630 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 58¢ $608 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 49¢ $621 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 40¢ $1,206 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $1,208 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 44¢ $545 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 32¢ $452 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 39¢ $398 6d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 38¢ $543 6d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 60¢ $33 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 38¢ $615 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 29¢ $501 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 27¢ $389 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 19¢ $723 7d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 52¢ $1,420 8d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 35¢ $456 8d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur SELL Daria Snigur 29¢ $176 8d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur SELL Panna Udvardy 69¢ $1,885 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,531.39 · official $1,531.39 (match) · 314 history records