Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:03:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15e4…e156 crypto 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,893 (-22%) realized −$5,893 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%16W / 30L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$571per market
Trades / day80.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,045
7 days−$6,709
14 days−$6,709
30 days−$6,588
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6,588
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +6.1% -4.0% 33% 33% -35.6%
≤30d 46 +8.3% -2.0% 35% 35% -34.9%
≤90d 46 +8.3% -2.0% 35% 35% -34.9%
all 46 +8.3% -2.0% 35% 35% -34.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.0% 35% -34.9%
10% -11.4% 35% -41.1%
15% ← realistic here -20.0% 35% -46.8%
20% -27.8% 35% -52.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$528) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
22.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$717 vs −$602 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,893
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses16 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage16d
Avg bet$571
Trades / day80.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $528 −$528 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $993 −$950 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $786 +$1,733 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 23 $417 −$374 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $501 +$673 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 23 $499 −$470 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $377 −$377 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 23 $473 −$450 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $259 +$591 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $99 +$159 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $338 −$320 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $424 +$1,512 +357%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $105 +$244 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 23 $356 −$338 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $5,366 −$3,136 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 20 $354 +$298 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $463 −$458 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $501 −$494 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 20 $152 +$202 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $290 −$276 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET Jun 19 $400 −$384 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $18 +$69 +381%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $251 −$50 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $231 +$666 +288%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $117 −$110 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $152 −$143 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 19 $221 −$209 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $53 +$82 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $135 −$129 -96%
Solana Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $1,801 −$1,645 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $438 −$426 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $2,449 −$2,449 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $1,121 −$1,071 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $836 +$1,044 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $479 −$456 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $544 +$2,468 +453%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $760 +$1,551 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $458 −$455 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $560 −$557 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 07 $101 +$121 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 07 $50 +$50 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $510 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $211 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $262 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $292 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $228 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1,141 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $285 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $130 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $720 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $263 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $262 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $261 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $52 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1316 history records