Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:24:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15e1…039d world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 451d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-3%) realized −$20 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate44%15W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$12
politics 20% −$2
other 16% −$4
tech 7% −$1
crypto 6% $0
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 -0.8% -10.2% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 9 -0.8% -10.2% 33% 0% -9.5%
all 34 -5.9% -14.8% 44% 3% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 3% -12.6%
10% -23.0% 3% -21.0%
15% -30.4% 3% -28.6%
20% -37.2% 0% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

451d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage451d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 77¢ 78¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $3 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $72 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $32 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $45 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $15 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $7 −$1 -9%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $32 $0 +1%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Dec 14 $23 −$1 -2%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 31 $5 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.90 in May? May 30 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? May 28 $5 $0 -1%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? May 27 $1 $0 +43%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? May 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 14 $1 $0 -16%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 13 $17 $0 -2%
Will Trump increase tariffs on China by Friday? Apr 13 $17 $0 +2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 11 $17 $0 +0%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alexandre Sarr win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 10 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 09 $9 −$2 -23%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 08 $10 $0 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Brighton finish in the top 4 of EPL? Apr 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? Apr 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Apr 05 $23 $0 -0%
Will Southampton be relegated? Apr 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 03 $2 $0 -0%
Will Trump create 'gold card' citizenship before April? Apr 01 $23 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $32 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 15h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 17h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 17h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $1 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $10 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $36 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $36 13d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 14d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 14d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $36 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $6 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $30 14d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL No 99¢ $33 14d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 98¢ $32 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $32 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $32 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $15 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $11 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $12 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $12 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $20 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $13 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.97 · official $32.97 (match) · 94 history records