Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:35:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15e1…1b3d crypto 295 markets active 0h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$314 (-3%) realized −$268 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate35%96W / 177L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$59
14 days−$82
30 days−$272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$18
other 16% −$170
finance 16% −$42
crypto 14% −$68
politics 6% −$9
sports 2% −$4
tech 1% −$28
culture 1% $0
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -10.1% -18.7% 28% 10% -15.5%
≤30d 116 -7.0% -15.9% 29% 9% -12.1%
≤90d 126 -6.1% -15.0% 32% 10% -12.0%
all 273 -2.5% -11.8% 35% 14% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 14% -11.8%
10% -20.3% 8% -20.2%
15% -28.0% 5% -27.9%
20% -35.0% 5% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized−$268
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses96 / 177
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions21
Markets (closed)273 / 295
History coverage151d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 273 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 68¢ 95¢ $34 $48 +$14 (+40%)
Will Dan Ndoye score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 49¢ $23 $20 −$4 (-16%)
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by July 27? Yes 83¢ 96¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+15%)
Will Ismael Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 49¢ $23 $17 −$6 (-27%)
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in June? Yes 80¢ 54¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-32%)
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by July 15? Yes 54¢ 67¢ $11 $13 +$3 (+24%)
Will Harry Kane score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 57¢ $13 $12 −$2 (-13%)
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $375 in June? Yes 57¢ 32¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-43%)
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 54¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-30%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? No 58¢ 40¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-30%)
Will Julian Alvarez score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 36¢ $11 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Will Kim Min-jae score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 15¢ $16 $5 −$11 (-71%)
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 62¢ 58¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Che Adams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 22¢ $8 $3 −$5 (-67%)
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 23¢ 19¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be above 85%? Yes 45¢ 20¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-56%)
Will Senegal (15) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 26¢ 15¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-42%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 44¢ 7¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-84%)
Will nocries play an HLTV-recorded match by June 30? Yes 44¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-68%)
Will Türkiye finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 33¢ 9¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Will Ferran Torres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 14¢ 33¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+136%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 17 $14 −$4 -30%
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 17 $20 $0 -2%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 16 $38 −$6 -17%
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,080 Week of June 15 20 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Jun 15 $112 −$24 -22%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $38 −$3 -7%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $19 $0 -2%
Will Harry Kane score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3 $0 -10%
Will Iñaki Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $6 $0 -5%
Will Alex Sandro be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 14 $39 −$1 -2%
Will 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will Nuno Mendes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 in June? Jun 12 $29 −$1 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $91 +$8 +9%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 12 $4 +$1 +14%
Will FUT qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 12 $30 $0 +2%
Will Warsh say "Asymmetric" during June Press Conference? Jun 12 $14 −$2 -16%
Will Warsh say "All-Time High" or "All-Time Low" during June Press Con Jun 12 $15 −$4 -24%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $6 −$2 -27%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $350 in June? Jun 11 $32 +$6 +18%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $390 in June? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? Jun 11 $16 −$2 -11%
Will Douglas Lumsden win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Jun 11 $6 $0 -6%
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Jun 11 $42 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? Jun 11 $29 −$2 -7%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Jun 11 $33 −$1 -4%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $12 −$11 -90%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $63 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $31 +$19 +61%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in June? Jun 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 10 $6 $0 +5%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $172 in June? Jun 10 $8 $0 +6%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc Jun 10 $11 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 10 $35 −$5 -16%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 10 $7 $0 -2%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in June? Jun 10 $1 $0 -7%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in June? Jun 10 $1 $0 -4%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 150 ( Jun 10 $4 $0 -8%
Will BetBoom qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 10 $28 $0 +1%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in June? Jun 10 $40 +$10 +25%
Will Love Island USA be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June Jun 10 $12 −$1 -12%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 in June? Jun 09 $22 $0 -2%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 in June? Jun 09 $18 −$4 -22%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 09 $13 +$9 +66%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 09 $26 +$24 +92%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 09 $13 −$1 -7%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 09 $5 −$1 -19%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 09 $34 +$16 +45%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 09 $22 −$18 -80%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 in June? Jun 09 $38 −$2 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $4 1m
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $1 2m
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $5 2m
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $14 26m
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $27 1h
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $31 1h
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? SELL Yes 40¢ $20 2h
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 2h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Spread: England BUY 8¢ $5 2h
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in June? SELL Yes 56¢ $6 4h
Will Che Adams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 63¢ $32 24h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 76¢ $38 25h
Will Dan Ndoye score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 45¢ $9 28h
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in June? SELL Yes 53¢ $8 28h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? SELL No 56¢ $6 28h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? SELL No 65¢ $13 42h
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be above 85%? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 42h
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be above 85%? SELL Yes 30¢ $7 42h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,080 Week of June 15 20 SELL No 2¢ $0 42h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 42h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,080 Week of June 15 20 BUY No 53¢ $15 43h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 45h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 47h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 2d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? SELL No 92¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL No 93¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.66 · official $201.78 · 1409 history records