Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15e0…ca99 crypto 1632 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d only
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$92 (+1%) realized +$92 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate84%1363W / 269L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day68.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$3
14 days−$13
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 314 +0.8% -8.8% 86% 24% -9.3%
≤30d 1632 +0.0% -9.5% 84% 30% -9.6%
≤90d 1632 +0.0% -9.5% 84% 30% -9.6%
all 1632 +0.0% -9.5% 84% 30% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 30% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 10% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 2% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses1363 / 269
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1632 / 1632
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day68.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1632 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $3 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records