Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:45:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15df…e03d other 238 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$67 (-0%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 224L
Whale WR8%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$14
14 days−$25
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$37
sports 29% −$25
politics 6% −$4
economics 5% −$3
world 5% −$1
culture 5% −$4
crypto 4% −$2
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 237 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 8% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 224
Whale WR (big bets)8%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)237 / 238
History coverage127d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 237 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $112 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $900 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $276 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $633 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $661 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $359 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $201 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $337 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $255 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $388 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $182 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $192 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $174 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $208 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $318 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $249 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $178 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $121 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $151 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $514 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $56 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 11 $217 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $265 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $321 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $362 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $393 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $510 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $414 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $117 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $217 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $353 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $264 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $366 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $114 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $187 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $186 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $660 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $60 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $52 1h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 2h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 4h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $52 5h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $53 7h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 8h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 11h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $53 11h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $53 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $53 15h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $53 17h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 20h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 21h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 24h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 25h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $53 26h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $53 28h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $53 33h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $53 34h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $53 35h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $53 37h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $6 39h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $6 41h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 42h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 44h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 45h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 46h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.11 · official $52.11 (match) · 1283 history records