Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:06:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15de…529e other 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate13%16W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$13
politics 29% −$9
sports 14% +$35
crypto 5% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 82 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 127 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 6% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 3% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 3% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×7.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses16 / 111
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)127 / 130
History coverage134d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Will XRP reach $2.40 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $193 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $167 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $190 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 17 $13 $0 +1%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $217 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $538 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $177 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 03 $183 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $220 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $797 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $193 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $167 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $191 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 27 $171 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $155 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $395 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $179 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $207 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 24 $209 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $226 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $362 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $215 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 21 $207 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $386 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $520 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $404 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $388 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $194 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 19 $157 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $223 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $181 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $415 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $209 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $184 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $758 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $318 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $202 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $211 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 13 $166 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $213 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $230 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $225 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $189 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $204 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $164 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 08 $161 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 08 $401 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $26 2h
Will XRP reach $2.40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $25 2h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $39 2h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 2h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 14d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 14d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 15d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 16d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 23d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $167 23d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $167 27d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $220 31d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $220 33d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $190 33d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $190 36d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $216 49d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $217 49d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $184 49d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $184 49d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $177 50d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $177 50d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $183 50d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $183 50d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $220 51d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $220 52d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $213 52d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $213 53d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $193 53d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $193 54d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $167 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.90 · official $89.90 (match) · 364 history records