Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:49:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
15 0x15db…1da8 sports 542 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$211 (-1%) realized −$221 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%247W / 286L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$238est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$280now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$295
7 days+$600
14 days+$345
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$584
other 8% +$203
world 0% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +38.1% +25.0% 70% 70% +25.4%
≤30d 149 -1.7% -11.1% 50% 50% -10.1%
≤90d 533 -1.0% -10.4% 46% 46% -11.6%
all 533 -1.0% -10.4% 46% 46% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 46% -11.6%
10% -19.0% 46% -20.0%
15% -26.8% 45% -27.7%
20% -34.0% 42% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$29 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$280
Realized−$221
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses247 / 286
Est. fees paid−$238
Open positions9
Markets (closed)533 / 542
History coverage55d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 533 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 50¢ 84¢ $30 $50 +$20 (+68%)
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 46¢ 46¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) Phoenix Mercury 53¢ 53¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Detroit Tigers 50¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 46¢ 46¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 52¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Phoenix Mercury 29¢ 28¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ 42¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 276 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$27 +90%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$35 +114%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 +$48 +158%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $30 +$17 +57%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) Jun 17 $30 +$28 +93%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 −$30 -49%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $30 +$30 +97%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $30 +$17 +55%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $30 +$36 +119%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $30 +$33 +109%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $31 +$39 +129%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $30 +$23 +76%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) Jun 15 $30 +$21 +70%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $31 +$48 +158%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $101 +$12 +12%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $61 +$12 +20%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 +$17 +57%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $30 +$36 +119%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$25 +83%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$17 +57%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $30 +$24 +79%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $91 +$67 +73%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $30 +$32 +105%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$33 +109%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $30 +$31 +101%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $30 +$7 +23%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $31 +$100 +325%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $30 +$30 +97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 +$26 +86%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $31 +$70 +230%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 12 $30 −$30 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $30 +$28 +93%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5 Jun 11 $30 +$23 +76%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $30 +$25 +83%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $31 −$30 -98%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 09 $30 −$30 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $30 +$26 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $30 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $30 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $30 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 50¢ $30 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 2h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 53¢ $30 4h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 29¢ $31 4h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 46¢ $30 4h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $30 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 14h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $30 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $29 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $30 17h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 38¢ $31 18h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $30 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $31 25h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) BUY Indiana Fever 51¢ $30 25h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $30 25h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 63¢ $30 25h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $30 28h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 45¢ $30 29h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $31 40h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 40h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 39¢ $31 44h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $30 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $30 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $30 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 67¢ $30 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 66¢ $29 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 67¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $280.06 · official $278.97 (match) · 845 history records