trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 50% | 0% | -8.9% |
| ≤30d | 15 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 47% | 0% | -9.2% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 47% | 0% | -9.2% |
| all | 28 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 50% | 0% | -9.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.6% | 0% | -9.3% |
| 10% | -18.3% | 0% | -18.0% |
| 15% | -26.2% | 0% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -33.4% | 0% | -33.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Yes | 3¢ | 1¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-69%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 23 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Jun 23 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 22 | $58 | $0 | +1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 21 | $2 | $0 | -7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 20 | $31 | +$1 | +4% |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | Jun 20 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 07 | $38 | −$1 | -1% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 07 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 07 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 06 | $67 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 05 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 04 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 02 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 15 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? | Dec 13 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 | Jun 12 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? | Jun 08 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Jun 07 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? | Jun 06 | $6 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? | May 13 | $1 | $0 | -8% |
| Will Elon tweet 225–249 times April 18–25? | Apr 24 | $15 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Apr 23 | $14 | +$1 | +9% |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 23 | $135 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will the Patriots make the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | Apr 22 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Conservatives flip Liberals in the polls before the election? | Apr 22 | $18 | −$3 | -15% |