Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:14:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
15 0x15d4…b79f crypto 1215 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 153d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,856 (-6%) realized −$1,737 · open −$119
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate75%914W / 299L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Fees−$219est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$331
7 days+$233
14 days−$131
30 days−$639
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$1,207
crypto 24% −$643
other 11% −$300
politics 1% −$105
world 1% +$103
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -27.2% -34.2% 38% 38% -0.2%
≤30d 50 -16.0% -24.0% 42% 40% -23.8%
≤90d 321 -48.4% -53.3% 27% 26% -19.1%
all 1213 -2.9% -12.1% 75% 42% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 42% -15.4%
10% -20.5% 26% -23.5%
15% -28.2% 11% -30.9%
20% -35.3% 9% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +13% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$38 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$1,737
Unrealized−$119
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses914 / 299
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$219
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1213 / 1215
History coverage154d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1213 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 28¢ $214 $95 −$119 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $61 −$61 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $56 −$56 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $56 −$56 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $20 +$22 +109%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 +$22 +215%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$67 +66%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 +$32 +104%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $126 +$74 +59%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$21 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $62 +$38 +62%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $200 +$154 +77%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,003 +$501 +50%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 14 $301 −$301 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $86 +$4 +5%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$54 +524%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$5 +45%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 11 $101 −$24 -24%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 11 $10 +$3 +25%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) Jun 11 $103 −$103 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 11 $254 −$254 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $150 +$90 +60%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $10 +$9 +93%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $101 +$46 +46%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 08 $5 +$5 +101%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $22 +$8 +36%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $11 +$9 +76%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 04 $51 +$41 +82%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 19? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 04 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 04 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $374 −$374 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $50 +$42 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $65 45m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $150 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $18 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $28 18h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil $5 18h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil $5 18h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 12¢ $11 18h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 21¢ $21 19h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 61¢ $61 19h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 55¢ $56 19h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $10 22h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 13¢ $5 24h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $10 24h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $40 24h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $3 42h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $0 42h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $13 43h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Qatar 68¢ $28 45h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 100¢ $43 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 93¢ $169 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 47¢ $20 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 22¢ $5 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 44¢ $20 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.87 · official $94.91 (match) · 3500 history records