Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:41:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

15 0x15d3…5122 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +42% what you keep after slip

Net edge+42%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$55per market

Trades / day2.1pace

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+41.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+56.4%	+41.5%	100%	100%	+41.5%
≤30d	1	+56.4%	+41.5%	100%	100%	+41.5%
≤90d	1	+56.4%	+41.5%	100%	100%	+41.5%
all	1	+56.4%	+41.5%	100%	100%	+41.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+41.5%	100%	+41.5%
10%	+28.0%	100%	+28.0%
15%	+15.6%	100%	+15.6%
20%	+4.3%	100%	+4.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +56% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +56% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$57 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$67

Realized−$9

Unrealized+$7

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)1 / 4

History coverage2d

Avg bet$55

Trades / day2.1

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	40¢	40¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23?	Yes	35¢	32¢	$30	$27	−$3 (-11%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	0¢	3¢	$0	$11	+$11 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?	Jun 22	$101	+$57	+56%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	40¢	$31	1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23?	BUY Yes	35¢	$31	1h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	15¢	$59	46h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?	BUY Yes	63¢	$101	46h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.89 · official $67.74 (match) · 5 history records